If It Rains

It's sunny in New York and Chelsea's 29th Congressional district was the one at my polling station with the shortest line (I was the only one in it). Beside me people snaked around and stared as I self-consciously tugged at my coat. The Republican poll-watcher checking me off on his list chuckled that the 30th Congressional district (the line next to me) only had two machines and we had one and no other voters.

Let the games begin. Turnout’s been great so far but if it rains today – will all the college kids expected to tip the balance show up? It’s the kind of doubt that’s trickling in, now that black voters, older voters and Latino voters are proving their mettle by withstanding rain, sleet, long lines, ID-related harassment and GOP intimidation.

But after the overworked Obama volunteers cannot be called on do more; and have to take a breather and wait for results (NY volunteers can still phone-bank; check for event listings)– will the kids who weren’t steam-rolled by canvassing and phone-banking responsibilities make it or break it? Will they live in the woolly warm world where “Obama-is-winning-anyway-so-no-biggie-if-it-rains” or make their collective admiration finally known? I’ll still go with the latter. I’m imagining oh-I-don’t-know – raincoats, galoshes and camping gear to ride the day out.

First we’re likely taking the day off from class or work as the Obama campaign has asked us to do. But alongside the one thousand attorneys expected to line up near Georgian voters, there is the anticipation now that kids in North Dakota (there’s a wet front coming through Bizmarck folks!) and Montana (sleet and snow are predicted) – who aren’t telling their parents and grandparents how they’re voting – will creep to the booths with their tents and pillows, umbrellas for those who forgot them and extra M&Ms and breath mints for those who'll find out they need to miss work. To all those youthfuls in Missouri – bring your friends – and your Ipods (as it seems much of the state hasn’t been voting early.)

Some college professors have high hopes for their students. Others are skeptical. U-Wisconsin professor Kathleen Dolan says the voting rates are pretty high (75 percent in the state) and it’s always possible the under-30s will under-perform (because that's what they've done in the past).

But this election is far from normal and the news looks promising.

In 1920 when women gained the right to vote, some were skeptical of their influence. “Nothing has changed except that the number of docile ballot droppers has approximately doubled,” wrote one male journalist.

The point being made was just because there were more voters in the electorate didn’t mean it would necessarily bring change. And oh how wrong he was. Nine years later, Roosevelt would adopt the ambitious New Deal, finally creating checks and balances in a wayward financial system and providing succor to a working class that had lost the lion’s share of jobs– women would become an active part of the constituency that would make this possible.

This year there are once again many voters who have joined the rolls (now 16.5 million and counting). But there are 140 million others across the country registered. How many will turn out? What do 16 and a half million newbies really mean? Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I, for one, am harboring fantasies about a rally in the global financial markets.


Mind the gap when reading the chart below..

Swing state predictions (electoral college only)
Electoral vote count: 320 Obama; 218 McCain

Obama wins: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, North Dakota, Nevada, and probably also New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

McCain wins: Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Montana.

	State Name (Electoral votes; counties)		Voters registered	Early or Absentee Ballots Cast; Turnout expected	Demographics
	Alabama (9 votes; 67 counties) Currently: MCCAIN 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain.		3 million in total have registered; 80 percent of all registered are expected to turn out. 40 percent of new voters are also under the age of 25; and 14 percent are between the ages of 25 and 30.	50 percent of all registered were expected to turn out early.	Nearly a quarter of the state is African American, but black voters are now close to 40 percent of the state’s electorate.
	Mississippi (6 votes; 82 counties) Currently: MCCAIN 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain.		190,000 new voters are registered this year; 1.9 million in total. The state does not otherwise have a voter ID requirement in the state but has begun pressing for people to verify addresses. High estimates reflect 85 percent of all the voters in the state may turn out.	U.S. DOJ will observe in Bolivar, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Kemper, Leake, Madison, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee, Washington, Wilkinson and Winston counties. No early voting.	37 percent African American; the highest concentration of blacks than any other state.
	Virginia (13 votes; 95 counties) Currently: leans OBAMA 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain.		436,000 new voters; Biggest increases are in urban areas and college towns; final registration deadline has passed; 71 percent of all voters cast ballots in 2004.	300,000 have cast absentee ballots.	20 percent are African American and 4 percent are Asian.
	North Carolina (15 votes; and 100 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Obama.		235,000 are new white voters; 150,000 are new black voters and 35,000 are self-described “other” new voters). 40 percent of all voters have already cast their ballots.	2.6 million have voted across the state so far.	22 percent are African American, 2 percent are Asian. Black voters so far have made up 26 percent of early votes cast.
	Georgia (15 electoral votes; 159 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Obama		5.7 million registered. Bush won the state in ’04 by a 17-point lead. This Election Day, more than a thousand attorneys are expected to be watching polling booths.	2 million (35 percent of total) have already voted, surpassing 2004 early turnout in which 20 percent voted.	30 percent are African American; the state is one of the fastest growing across the country.
	Pennsylvania (21 votes; 67 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain.		500,000 new voters registered.	No early voting.	11 percent are African American, 2 percent are Asian.
	Florida (27 votes; 67 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Obama.		430,000 new voters, with Democrats having a slight majority among them. 15 percent black, 10 percent Latino, Asian and mixed-race and other groups.		2.6 million have voted. 46 percent of early voters have cast ballots for Dems and a third of all voters have already made their choice known.
	Ohio (20 votes; 88 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: McCain.		830,000 new voters. Nearly half are under 30. Majority of new voters are registered in Democrat-leaning counties.	At least 530,000 have cast ballots so far. 1.5 million absentee ballots requested.	11 percent black.
	New Mexico (5 votes; 33 counties) Currently: Leans OBAMA 2004: BUSH Prediction: Obama		1.2 million total are registered. 80 percent turnout expected (Note that 70 percent turned out in 2004). New voter counts not available.	226,000 have voted and included those who voted by absentee ballot.	29 percent speak Spanish at home, 4 percent speak Navajo. Democrats are predominant in 21 of the state’s counties.
	Colorado (9 votes; 64 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Obama		217,000 new voters. Republicans maintain a small lead in new registrations.	56 percent of Colorado voters have already cast ballots. 70 percent of mail-in votes have been returned. In 2004, 60 percent of those registered, voted in the election as a whole.	19 percent Latino, 5 percent black, 4 percent Asian.
	Missouri (11 votes, 114 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain		340,000 new voters, 150,000 of which are under 24. Expected turnout is 75 percent of total voters registered, a slight decrease over other popular election years.	10 percent of total ballots have been cast.	12 percent African American, 2 percent Asian and mixed-race.
	Indiana (11 votes, 92 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain		525,000 new voters.	409,000 have voted early.	9 percent black, 5 percent Latino.
	Arizona (10 votes; 15 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain.		270,000 new voters since 2006 election, 168,000 of which are Dems. State otherwise leans Republican. 80 percent turnout of registered voters are expected, an increase of 9 points over 71 percent in 2004 and 2000.	Some believe half of all voters have cast early ballots but no confirmation of that yet.	29 percent Latino, 3.5 percent black, 4 percent Asian and mixed-race.
	Montana (3 votes; 56 counties) Currently: leans MCCAIN 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow McCain		38,000 new voters, 24,400 of who are under 35.	184,000 voted early.	7 percent American Indian.
	North Dakota (3 votes; 53 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow Obama		State does not require voters to register.	None available.	25 percent of all residents are under 30.
	Nevada 5 votes; 16 counties) Currently: SWING 2004: BUSH Prediction: Narrow Obama		2.2 million registered.	Half the state’s voters are expected to have already cast their ballots.	7 percent African American, 6 percent Asian and 20 percent Latino.